Any idea on how tariffs will affect shipments to US?

Globalisation is here to stay. Whatever Trump thinks, he cant turn back the clock. Protectionism and being insular will only damage the US economy, reduce investment and ultimately reduce living standards.

Trumps erratic behaviour, cosying up with the worlds dictators whilst at the same time offending and alienating every single ally America has by declaring "economic war", makes America un-trustworthy from the rest of the worlds point of view. This will make Americas traditional allies pivot away to more trust worthy partners. This reduces Americas standing and influence in the world.

Times are a changing. It is such a shame that one man, a wannabe dictator, is causing so much damage.
 
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The rather amusing thing about Trumps u-turn on tariffs is that the "master negotiator" has now lost all of his bargaining power. When push comes to shove he backs down.

The rest of the world can now, and will, ignore him. What a cock womble.

Also, how many of the Trump team are going to get indicted for insider trading?
 
Alan March said:
@SmartOne_2000 A question if I may.

Does the average American citizen understand that the foreign countries and manufacturers do not pay the tariffs that have been imposed? Do they understand that it is the US importers that pay (companies or individuals), which ultimately means the increased cost will be passed on to the US consumer?
That this is essentially a tax on them? Basically the same as putting sales tax up to 25% or more.

Secondly that America, like Australia and other highly developed countries, is high wage economy.

The highest cost any business has is employing people. This is the primary reason why manufacturing (particularly lower skilled manufacturing) has shifted to lower wage economies and countries. It's not just America, its happened here, UK and Europe too.

If punitive tariffs are imposed in an attempt to to exclude imports and to encourage manufacturing in the US, then due to those high wages those product manufacturing costs will rise dramatically if a product made in the US. This cost *will* get passed on to the consumer. So ordinary people will essentially be paying a tax to support US businesses that are fundamentally uncompetitive.

Doesn't that somewhat go against the American psyche?

In addition to this, the countries of the rest of the world are still trading with each other, for the most part without tariffs. If you make the assumption that "new" US manufacturing will appear as Trump suggests, how can it compete in export markets when its manufacturing costs are so much higher?
Click to expand...
1. Nope ... such matters are too esoteric for the average person, for the most part. All they are told and hear is prices are going to go up.

2. Pretty much, yes...that all western nations are rich nations compared to other countries.

3. They know and understand the US is expensive from a labor point of view and that's why offshoring has been an attractive option for the past 3 - 4 decades. Think Walmart...they love its cheaper products knowing they are made abroad.

The US, ofcourse cannot compete if low cost goods are manufactured in the US. They will be very expensive and not competitive at all. Its the much higher cost items that Trump wants to bring back to the US. For example, revitalize its chip industry via TSMC building fabs in the US or Medical and pharmaceutical products and other critical goods that could affect national security. Covid19 showed how many nations, US included, were extremely vulnerable when needed PPE was held up by China, critical medicines held up by India, critical electronic items for the defense and commercial industries, etc. Those need to be manufactured in the US for safety.

Walmart stuff not so much!
 
SmartOne_2000 said:
1. Nope ... such matters are too esoteric for the average person, for the most part. All they are told and hear is prices are going to go up.

2. Pretty much, yes...that all western nations are rich nations compared to other countries.

3. They know and understand the US is expensive from a labor point of view and that's why offshoring has been an attractive option for the past 3 - 4 decades. Think Walmart...they love its cheaper products knowing they are made abroad.

The US, ofcourse cannot compete if low cost goods are manufactured in the US. They will be very expensive and not competitive at all. Its the much higher cost items that Trump wants to bring back to the US. For example, revitalize its chip industry via TSMC building fabs in the US or Medical and pharmaceutical products and other critical goods that could affect national security. Covid19 showed how many nations, US included, were extremely vulnerable when needed PPE was held up by China, critical medicines held up by India, critical electronic items for the defense and commercial industries, etc. Those need to be manufactured in the US for safety.

Walmart stuff not so much!
Click to expand...
But surely America needs jobs across all sectors, not just high tech industries? From what I observe there is no issue with high tech industries in the US. It's general manufacturing that is is the issue, same as it is here and most other highly developed countries.

Secondly, my observation is that Trump sold his populist message to blue collar workers.

OK, so who is going to invest in those industries? Investors dont do this for patriotic reasons, they do it for profit. Most industries require plant, materials and supplies that are manufactured outside of the US. With tarrifs in place these costs are massively more expensive. You can forget export markets for the products, which many businesses rely on.

Businesses also like stability. Who knows what Trump is going to do next.

America is now too volatile and risky for businesses to invest in.

Also, at the next change of US government (may be sooner than some expect) I suspect that US international trade will open up again. At which point any business that set up under Trumps protectionist policies will become extremely vulnerable.

Trump has just used populist rhetoric (and plain lies) to gain votes. He has no understanding of economics.


Just as an aside to this, some readers might be asking what on earth do I know about America, and its a fair question.

Well, I have actually spent a long time working all across the US during my career, so I have experienced it and the people. Great place. Great people.

Also in Australia we get detailed news coverage. We have a TV channel (SBS - actually public funded) which broadcasts news programs from all over the world. We see daily PBS, ABC etc.
www.sbs.com.au

SBS WorldWatch - North America

SBS WorldWatch - bringing Australians different perspectives from around the globe. Stream news bulletins from North America for free on SBS On Demand.
www.sbs.com.au www.sbs.com.au
Plus the BBC and our own ABC.
The BBC also has a superb podcast "Americast" which goes into great detail on US current affairs.

BBC Audio | Americast

Listen to the latest episodes of Americast on BBC Audio
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

So we really do get a balanced view from many different independent sources. I actively avoid drawing conclusions from information presented on social media as the algorithms guarantee to present a biased and inaccurate view.
 
Alan March said:
But surely America needs jobs across all sectors, not just high tech industries? From what I observe there is no issue with high tech industries in the US. It's manufacturing that is is the issue, same as it is here and most other highly developed countries.

Secondly, my observation is that Trump sold his populist message to blue collar workers.

OK, so who is going to invest in those industries? Investors dont do this for patriotic reasons, they do it for profit. Most industries require plant, materials and supplies that are manufactured outside of the US. With tarrifs in place these costs are massively more expensive. You can forget export markets for the products, which many businesses rely on.

Businesses also like stability. Who knows what Trump is going to do next.

America is now too volatile and risky for businesses to invest in.

Also, at the next change of US government (may be sooner than some expect) I suspect that US international trade will open up again. At which point any business that set up under Trumps protectionist policies will become extremely vulnerable.

Trump has just used populist rhetoric (and plain lies) to gain votes. He has no understanding of economics.


Just as an aside to this, some readers might be asking what on earth do I know about America, and its a fair question.

Well, I have actually spent a long time working all across the US during my career, so I have experienced it and the people. Great place. Great people.

Also in Australia we get detailed news coverage. We have a TV channel (SBS - actually public funded) which broadcasts news programs from all over the world. We see daily PBS, ABC etc.
www.sbs.com.au

SBS WorldWatch - North America

SBS WorldWatch - bringing Australians different perspectives from around the globe. Stream news bulletins from North America for free on SBS On Demand.
www.sbs.com.au www.sbs.com.au
Plus the BBC and our own ABC.
The BBC also has a superb podcast "Americast" which goes into great detail on US current affairs.

BBC Audio | Americast

Listen to the latest episodes of Americast on BBC Audio
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

So we really do get a balanced view from many different independent sources. I actively avoid drawing conclusions from information presented on social media as the algorithms guarantee to present a biased and inaccurate view.
Click to expand...
The claim to return manufacturing back to the US will be through high-tech, highly automated factories. Most of these jobs will require some form of advanced degree, with the rest, aka blue collar jobs, aiding automated manufacturing floors. I'm not sure if you've seen how Elon Musk has revolutionized manufacturing but its simply amazing. Tesla produces a new car every 30 seconds! An unknown feat unmatched by other all other car manufacturers. The manufacturing floor is highly automated yet they manage to employ hundreds of thousands of folks, mostly blue color workers.

Apple, with its $500B promise to manufacturer in the SU will use the same model used in China and elsewhere. Automate as much as you can and human workers take care of the rest. Same with the new TSMC plants in Arizona. High automation with blue color workers alongside them.

But the blue color workers of today are not the same as those of yesterday. True, they may not have 4-year college degrees, but many will have targeted associate degrees (e.g. an AA in Industrial Automation), they are a very technically savvy generation (unlike previous blue color generations) and also will be re-trained by their employers. Employers get tax breaks / incentives if they re-train employees for newer roles in the US. Many will earn very good wages of $80K and above. These salaries will be possible due to the cost offsets caused by automation. The new revenue from company and worker taxes will be a boon to local, state and the US treasury. I believe more than $7T of investment has been announced by various companies.

This is the job model that Trump hopes to bring back to the US and what he campaigned on and why he was re-elected. We'll see how well it pans out. I, for one, wish him (or any politician regardless of party) success in this area, for I want my country to succeed and flourish in this regard. With additional promised government savings from Elon Musk's DOGE efforts, I believe Trump stands a chance of delivering what he promised. At least, that's my prayer!
 
With the greatest respect you have been sold a lie.

High tech industries are doing just fine already in the US and Trumps policies are far broader than targetting hi tech manufacturing. Steel production is just one example.

Automated industries dont create blue collar jobs. They do create some high skilled jobs, but this not what Trump has been selling.


Elon really has not revolutionised car manufacturing.

Just one example:

In 2023, BMW was the world's ninth-largest producer of motor vehicles, and the 6th largest by with 2,555,341 vehicles produced in 2023 alone.
Thats a car every 12 seconds. 2.5 times faster than Musk with double the sales. BMW are only the 9th largest car producer so Musk is small fry. Not to mention that Tesla sales have now tanked because of his association with Trump and his ill considered DOGE behaviour.

International sales of Tesla have tanked because of Trump and Elon.

Australia:
  • Tesla's sales in Australia have seen a sharp decline, with a 53% drop in March 2025 compared to March 2024.

  • Europe:
  • Tesla's sales across the EU have fallen by 45% from January 2024 to January 2025.
  • Germany, a major EV market in Europe, has seen a 76% decline in Tesla sales in February 2025 compared to February 2024.
  • Sales in other European countries like France and Norway have also declined.

Also, are you aware of how many Tesla components are imported from overseas? If tariffs are in place car production costs sky rocket. It makes them more expensive for US consumers and destroys export markets. Don't forget that the rest of the world is trading normally. American produced cars under a tariff regime become completely uncompetitive.


Apple using the same model as in China? Do you mean low wage workers? If not then;

One analyst estimates that on labor wages alone, a U.S.-made iPhone could cost 25% more than they do now. Another analyst pegged the price of a stars-and-stripes iPhone at $3,500.

When President Barack Obama asked the late Apple CEO Steve Jobs about making an iPhone in the U.S., Jobs didn't mince words.
"Those jobs aren't coming back," Jobs said at a dinner with Obama in 2011.

Again, what about export sales? Higher production cost in the US will make Apple uncompetetive in international markets. This is a major reason they dont manufacture in the US at the moment.

With tariffs in place export sales will tank due to increased cost. Not to mention that consumers will actively avoid Apple due to anti US sentiment caused by Trump.


Have you seen that Trumps economic advisor, Peter Nevaro, has been referencing a fictional economist as the basis for his policies? Ron Vara, a fake economist. Vara is a fictional character invented by Peter Navarro.

Ron Vara is an obvious anagram of Nevarro. Even Musk called him "dumb as a sack of bricks". Musk has realised that tariffs are going to destroy Tesla.

Honestly, you couldn't make this stuff up. If it were a movie plot you would say it was too far fetched.
 
Thing is, we have history to inform us of the outcomes of these tariff policies. Its nothing new, its been tried and failed miserably before.

The Tariff Act of 1930, also known as the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act, was a protectionist trade measure signed into law in the United States by President Herbert Hoover on June 17, 1930. Named after its chief congressional sponsors, Senator Reed Smoot and Representative Willis C. Hawley, the act raised tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods in an effort to shield American industries from foreign competition during the onset of the Great Depression, which had started in October 1929.

Despite a petition from more than 1,000 economists urging him to veto the legislation, Hoover signed the bill into law on June 17, 1930.

Smoot-Hawley contributed to the early loss of confidence on Wall Street and signaled U.S. isolationism. By raising the average tariff by some 20 percent, it also prompted retaliation from foreign governments.

U.S. imports from and exports to Europe fell by some two-thirds between 1929 and 1932 lengthening the great depression.

In 1934 President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act, reducing tariff levels and promoting trade liberalization and cooperation with foreign governments.


Tariffs don't work. They harm everyone, but they will harm US citizens the most.

Trump has lied about the alleged tariffs/barriers imposed by other countries. Most don't exist. His reciprocal tariff chart and levels are pure fantasy with no basis in fact.

He appears unable to tell the difference between a tariff and a trade imbalance. Hence the imposition of punitive tariffs on desperatly poor nations and islands whose only inhabitants are penguins.

Another example:

Trump; "Japan wont take and block our cars".

Wrong. There are no barriers in Japan to importing US cars. It is simply the case that Japanese consumers dont like/want them. Hence there is no market for them.

Trump is gas lighting the American people.


The last thing I want is to argue with you, so I think I will move this discussion to another dedicated thread and possibly close it.

With the greatest of respect my advice is to look at information and news from a pluraty of quality sources so you can be best informed with a balance of information. Avoid social media at all costs if you want to be accurately informed.
 
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SmartOne_2000 said:
A good and enlightening debate for sure :)!
Click to expand...

Yes, its always good to discuss and debate. However, there really doesn't seem to be much of a debate to have.

There are those that the believe the lies that Trump spouts continuously (there is no debate BTW that he continuously lies- its easily demonstrable), and then the balance of informed American citizens, and frankly the rest of the world.

It's interesting to note that now he has removed tariffs on mobile phones etc. This just proves that the likes of Apple would have their business destroyed by the tariffs. It's obvious Apple have no intention of bringing their manufacturing back to the US.

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1.5 万个心情 · 1.1 万次分享 | Get ready folks: | Eugene Strobe

Get ready folks:.
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18 万次播放 · 7,920 个心情 | Jeffrey Sachs, the influential economist and Columbia University professor, didn’t hold back this week when asked about Trump’s trade policy. “Mickey Mouse is smarter than him,” Sachs said bluntly, roasting the former president’

Jeffrey Sachs, the influential economist and Columbia University professor, didn’t hold back this week when asked about Trump’s trade policy. “Mickey Mouse is smarter than him,” Sachs said bluntly,...
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